Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by:
PoliticaOne-OffUS PoliticsElezione12mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSeptember 15, 2027 86.2%In testa tra 4 esiti
Previsori
12
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+36.2 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto15 set 26, 19:37 UTC16 set 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
0%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Who will become the next governor of California after Gavin Newsom?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom ever become the Democratic nominee for president?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom be the favorite for Democratic Nominee on Dec. 31, 2026? [Per Polymarket Data]
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?
KalshiGavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketRegole
As of market creation, Gavin Newsom as Democratic nominee is trading for 18% on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028
- And 13% on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd/democratic-primary-winner/kxpresnomd-28
- An option in this market resolves yes if the price differential between the two sites closes to 1% or less, by the date listed.
- If a price differential > 1% develops in the opposite direction between the two sites, that is also sufficient for resolution yes.
- If one option in this market resolves yes, all subsequent options will also resolve yes at that point in time.
- Time for resolution will be midnight in pacific time on the specified date (i.e. at the very beginning of the day, not the end).
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.5pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,1 Mld €
- Volume 24h
- 1,8 Mln €
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+44.0pt57.4%
- Nicolás Maduro-40.9pt41.6%
- No Head of State-0.1pt1%
+13 altri esiti
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.1pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 615,5 Mln €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff+1.0pt17.9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.0pt16.8%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.7%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep-1.0pt58.6%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30.3%
- Republicans sweep-0.2pt10.1%
+1 altri esiti
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 altri esiti
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- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by:?
- Manifold Markets quota September 15, 2027 al 86% al 20 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by:?
- Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by: dovrebbe risolversi il 16 settembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by:?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: As of market creation, Gavin Newsom as Democratic nominee is trading for 18% on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028