KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Before Oct 1, 2027 74%In testa tra 4 esiti
Qualità del mercato
40 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
2,3K €
Liquidità mediaSpread
6.0 pt
Spread ampioDati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 minuti fa
7 apr 26, 14:00 UTC1 gen 27, 15:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by which date?
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PolymarketWill Gavin Newsom be the favorite for Democratic Nominee on Dec. 31, 2026? [Per Polymarket Data]
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom complete his second term as governor of California?
Manifold MarketsWhen will JD Vance announce his presidential candidacy?
KalshiRegole
If Gavin Newsom has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 the named outcome, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency.
- Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement.
- The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed.
- Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify.
- Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office.
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7K €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,2 Mln €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 183,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3K €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 altri esiti
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- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy??
- Kalshi quota Before Oct 1, 2027 al 74% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy??
- When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If Gavin Newsom has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 the named outcome, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.