Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026?
IAOne-OffTecnologia3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 61%
Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto23 set 25, 01:52 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Manifold MarketsSuperhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegole
https://joeandseth.substack.com/p/prompt-writing-outsourcing-cognition
- Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, by 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2026, there is at least one publicly released empirical study with n > 1000 human participants that reports a statistically significant reduction in unassisted problem-solving performance for “heavy AI users” (as defined by the study: e.g., top-quantile usage logs, assigned heavy-use condition, or clearly specified frequent-use threshold) compared to lighter/non-users or to their own baseline when AI is not allowed during the outcome assessment (p < 0.05 or 95% CI excluding zero).
- “Unassisted problem-solving” = tasks completed without AI access at test time (e.g., proctored exams, reasoning/problem-solving assessments where AI tools are prohibited).
- n > 1000 refers to unique participants analyzed (not number of items/tasks/observations).
- Multi-site replications may aggregate across identical protocols if the combined participant count exceeds 1000.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHIWhat will Trump say during his United Nations meetings?
- Fentanyl99%
- Zelensky99%
- Cartel99%
+38 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 369,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 368K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.3pt69.3%
- ChatGPT-0.3pt13.9%
- Gemini+0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,4 Mln €
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.3pt99%
- OpenAI+0.3pt1%
- Meta-0.1pt0%
+18 altri esiti
POLYMARKETTrump renames AI by September 30?
- No-24.0pt68.3%
- Yes+24.0pt31.7%
- Volume totale
- 89,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 79,4K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,79%
- December 15,+1.0pt75%
- November 30,57%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 3,3 Mln €
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 20264%
- Volume totale
- 85,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 64,4K €
- Best AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Moonshot AI share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI share of spend on Sep 22, 2026 (Vercel)
- OpenAI market share this week
- What will Trump say during his remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival?
- Qwen market share this week
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 61% al 22 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026??
- Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: https://joeandseth.substack.com/p/prompt-writing-outsourcing-cognition