AI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027
IAOne-Off1a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 83.8%
Previsori
16
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto4 apr 25, 03:54 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will "Which side of the AI safety community are you in?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsFrontier labs ~trusted by the AI safety community at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS-China Track 1 AI dialogue commits to shared AI safety benchmark by '27?
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurTop AI model in September?
KalshiRegole
This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2027, the AI safety community successfully advocates for and achieves a significant global slowdown in frontier AI development.
- A "significant global slowdown" requires at least two of the following:
- A formal international agreement signed by at least 3 of the top 5 AI-producing countries to limit or pause certain types of AI development
- Major AI labs (at least 3 of the top 5) publicly committing to and implementing significant voluntary slowdowns
- Implementation of substantial regulatory barriers to rapid AI development in at least 3 of the top 5 major AI-producing countries
- The slowdown must be explicitly connected to AI safety concerns and must represent a material change from the previous development pace.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per AI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 84% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve AI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027?
- AI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027 dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato AI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2027, the AI safety community successfully advocates for and achieves a significant global slowdown in frontier AI development.