Will "Which side of the AI safety community are you in?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
One-OffIA3m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 20:05 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 88.9%
Previsori
4
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto23 ott 25, 08:47 UTC1 feb 27, 00:00 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Frontier labs ~trusted by the AI safety community at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill "The Spectre haunting the "AI Safety" Community" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsAI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027
Manifold MarketsWill "The Invisible Side of AI Governance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurRegole
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Which side of the AI safety community are you in? is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
