2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
2.2 pt (24h)PoliticaOne-OffElezioni di metà mandato USA 2026Politica USAElezione3m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeDemocrats, ≥4% 92.2%+2.2ptIn testa tra 12 esiti
Previsori
5
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+42.2 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 49 minuti fa
In ritardo25 ott 26, 20:10 UTC3 feb 27, 15:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketIf Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Mirrors this Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhousepopvotemargind/kxhousepopvotemargind/kxhousepopvotemargind-26nov03/kxhousepopvotemargind-26nov03-al10
- Resolves according to Kalshi's final result, using Kalshi's rules for this market.
- Kalshi's rules: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 10 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.