Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 23 ott 2026, 21:22 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale
National 0-5% 36.1%In testa tra 8 esiti
Previsori
5
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+2.7 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 57 minuti fa
In ritardo16 ott 26, 23:26 UTC19 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
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Resolves the same as: NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
- [link preview]A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
- New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
- This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
- The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes.
- Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election.