KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Democratic by 9.0% or more 19.3%In testa tra 20 esitiCorretto per il margine: le quote grezze sommavano oltre il 100% e sono state normalizzate.
Qualità del mercato
64 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
693,5 €
Liquidità
33,7K €
Alta liquiditàSpread
3.0 pt
Spread moderatoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 minuti fa
20 mag 26, 18:00 UTC6 mag 29, 15:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Kalshi2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
PolymarketNZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
PolymarketHow much progress will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact make by the 2028 election?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich Party will win the House popular vote in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 9.00-100.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:United States Congress
- The popular vote margin is calculated as (total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded to two decimal places.
- The calculation uses the states' and DC's most recent certificates of ascertainment of presidential election results as of the date of the January joint session of Congress.
- If multiple certificates of ascertainment are sent to Congress for a state, the one Congress counts is used.
- If Congress rejects all certificates for a state, the most recently issued one is used.
- Votes cast for a candidate under multiple party nominations are aggregated.
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
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POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
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- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
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+39 altri esiti
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
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- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 altri esiti
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POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 altri esiti
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per 2028 popular vote margin of victory??
- Kalshi quota Democratic by 9.0% or more al 19% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve 2028 popular vote margin of victory??
- 2028 popular vote margin of victory? dovrebbe risolversi il 6 maggio 2029.
- Come viene liquidato 2028 popular vote margin of victory??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 9.00-100.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.