2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
1.0 pt (24h)One-OffPoliticaElezionePolitica USAElezioni di metà mandato USA 20261a
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Democrats, 8 to 10% · —
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Prezzo registrato
Democrats, 8 to 10% 29.5%In testa tra 10 esiti
Democrats, 8 to 10% 29.5%Qualità del mercato
93 / 100
Alta qualitàVolume 24h
82,8K €
Open interest
2,9 Mln USD
Open interest altoBid / Ask
— / —
Democrats, 8 to 10%Spread
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 minuti fa
4 feb 26, 15:00 UTC3 nov 27, 13:00 UTC
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- Chiusura anticipata:
- Sì
- Tempo di liquidazione:
- 30m (indicativo)
Profondità di mercato · Democrats, 8 to 10%
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Manifold MarketsRegole
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:the Clerk of the House
- The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Regole per ogni esito
- Democrats, 8 to 10%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 10 to 12%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 10 and 12 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 6 to 8%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 6 and 8 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 12 to 14%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 12 and 14 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 4 to 6%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 4 and 6 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Republicans win
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 14 to 16%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 14 and 16 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 16% and above
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 16 and 100 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 2 to 4%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 2 and 4 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 0 to 2%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 0 and 2 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.