![🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS]](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fuser-images%252Fdefault%252FqUqhg0h2Ql.png%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3Df978e3d8-b66c-45f6-a5ae-88c9fa1fe3f5&w=128&q=80)
Previsione della comunità attuale
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min 100%In testa tra 135 esiti
Previsori
360
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 45 minuti fa
In ritardo22 mag 25, 19:43 UTC30 set 26, 22:36 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Improve my game 🏊 [ADD OPTIONS]
Manifold Markets✨ Improve my life? ✨ [ADD OPTIONS]
Manifold MarketsSeptember 2026 Trump-Xi Summit props (add options)
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWhere will it rain on Sep 21, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 21, 2026?
KalshiRegole
If the change is distinguishable AND is worse, resolves NO
- If the change is distinguishable AND is better, resolves YES
- If the change is not distinguishable AND does not greatly (25%?ish) reduce time or inputs, resolves NO
- If the change is not distinguishable AND does greatly (25%?ish) reduce time or inputs, resolves YES
- If I determine the change is too difficult (I have my own mill but sifting by hand could be maybe too tedious?, stuff like grow my own wheat), I am liable to resolve that option N/A
- If I determine the change departs too far from the categories "bread" or "loaf of bread" (such as suggesting I make a bread bowl with split pea soup😋 or a BLT 😋 or cinnamon rolls 😋), resolves N/A
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 125,4K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,9 Mln €
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 156,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 26,1K €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 altri esiti
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per 🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS]?
- Manifold Markets quota Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min al 100% al 21 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve 🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS]?
- 🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS] dovrebbe risolversi il 30 settembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato 🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS]?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: If the change is distinguishable AND is worse, resolves NO