KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Before Jan 20, 2029 47.4%In testa tra 3 esitiCorretto per il margine: le quote grezze sommavano oltre il 100% e sono state normalizzate.
Qualità del mercato
37 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
343,9 €
Bassa liquiditàSpread
5.0 pt
Spread moderatoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 minuti fa
9 lug 26, 00:00 UTC1 gen 27, 14:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
At the end of 2027 will both OpenAI and Anthropic be public companies?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketWho trades publicly first: OpenAI or Anthropic?
Manifold MarketsWhich months will Google OR OpenAI OR Anthropic release a new LLM
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
KalshiTop AI model in September?
KalshiRegole
If the U.S. federal government has taken a stake of at least 1% in each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business) the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:The Financial TimesThe InformationMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforABCNBCThe Washington Postthe Associated PressReutersAxiosFox NewsCNNPoliticoBloomberg NewsCBSCNBCThe New York Times
- Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests.
- This includes indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity.
- Pre-existing stakes count toward the threshold.
- Ownership is aggregated across all share classes and listings.
- Crossing the threshold at any point satisfies the criterion regardless of subsequent changes.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 132,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 322,4K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic??
- Kalshi quota Before Jan 20, 2029 al 47% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic??
- Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If the U.S. federal government has taken a stake of at least 1% in each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business) the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.