Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 09:52 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 92.6%
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39
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato ieri
Obsoleto4 apr 26, 18:24 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketWill OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic or Google have a stronger model by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic vs Google: Highest Arena Score at the end of 2026
KalshiWill OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google acquire or take a controlling stake in a broker-dealer by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWho trades publicly first: OpenAI or Anthropic?
Manifold MarketsRegole
[tweet]Temporary outages do not count, permanent outages count.
- Update 2026-04-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications on specific scenarios:
- Removing older model generations from API (e.g., keeping Sonnet 5 but not older Sonnets) counts as cutting API access
- Keeping a mid-tier model but removing top-tier (e.g., keeping Sonnet 5 but not Opus 5) does not count as cutting API access
- No requirement to add the most advanced models (e.g., multi-agent scaffolds, 'Pro' equivalents) to the API
- Resolution requires access to at least: a mid-tier model from the current generation (e.g., Gemini Flash, Claude Sonnet, GPT Mini) OR the most advanced non-multi-agent model from the previous generation