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  1. Mercati Predittivi
  2. Russia / Ukraine
  3. Will Ukraine become an EU associate member in 2026?
Will Ukraine become an EU associate member in 2026?

Will Ukraine become an EU associate member in 2026?

1.0% (24h)One-OffRussia / UkraineEurope6m
KalshiKalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissione
Probabilità implicita attuale
Sì
Sì 19%+1.0%
Qualita del mercato

44 / 100

Bassa qualità
Volume 24h

0,1 €

Liquidità

5,4 €

Bassa liquidità
Bid / Ask

18.0% / 19.0%

Spread

5.6%

Spread moderato
Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 8 minuti fa

4 mag 26, 19:301 gen 27, 4:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Esito scelto

Yes19%

Regole

If the European Union agrees to or announces that Ukraine will receive a Pre-Accession Institutional Participation Status before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Pre-Accession Institutional Participation Status means any formal EU-approved pre-accession status or arrangement, however described, that allows Ukraine to sit in, attend, observe, or be represented at meetings of EU ministers, EU leaders, or EU institutions without voting rights before Ukraine becomes a full EU Member State.
  • Candidate-country status, accession negotiations, EU-law screening, funding access, or Ukraine’s existing EU Association Agreement shall not qualify unless Ukraine receives new non-voting participation or representation rights in EU ministerial, leaders’, or institutional meetings.
  • An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:
  • Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies
  • Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (June 15 - June 21)

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European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?

158,6 €
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Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2026

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Russian attacks or invades Latvia by mid 2026

188 €
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Will the EU disburse any funds under the €90 billion Ukraine Support Loan by 30 June 2026?

8,7 €
Sì: 90.6%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$63,272.73-1.25%EthereumETH$1,703.60-2.09%SolanaSOL$69.32-2.68%DogecoinDOGE$0.0833-1.07%XRPXRP$1.14-1.92%BNBBNB$577.39-2.15%

Notizie Correlate

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Regole

If the European Union agrees to or announces that Ukraine will receive a Pre-Accession Institutional Participation Status before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Pre-Accession Institutional Participation Status means any formal EU-approved pre-accession status or arrangement, however described, that allows Ukraine to sit in, attend, observe, or be represented at meetings of EU ministers, EU leaders, or EU institutions without voting rights before Ukraine becomes a full EU Member State.
  • Candidate-country status, accession negotiations, EU-law screening, funding access, or Ukraine’s existing EU Association Agreement shall not qualify unless Ukraine receives new non-voting participation or representation rights in EU ministerial, leaders’, or institutional meetings.
  • An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:
  • Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies
  • Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.