KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 98%
Qualità del mercato
45 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
377,6 €
Bassa liquiditàBid / Ask
0.3% / 5.5%
Spread
5.2 pt
Spread ampioDati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 minuti fa
3 dic 25, 23:30 UTC1 gen 27, 15:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
US abolishes debt ceiling before 2029?
Manifold MarketsUS defaults on debt by 2027?
PolymarketBrazil’s public debt-GDP ratio at the end of 2026
FutuurWhat will US federal government debt as a percent of GDP be in 2035?
Manifold MarketsWhat will US federal government debt as a percent of GDP be in 2033?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketRegole
If a bill becomes law that abolishes the debt ceiling (rather than just temporarily suspending or increasing it) before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:Library of Congress
Mercati aperti
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52%
- No change-3.0pt46.1%
- 25 bps decrease+0.1pt1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 89,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 323,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 25,3K €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 523K €
- Volume 24h
- 22K €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes+1.0pt2%
- Volume totale
- 611,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8K €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP86%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 10,5K €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No94%
- Yes+1.0pt6%
- Volume totale
- 2,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 7,7K €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Mexico unemployment rate in August
- 2026: Trump's dream year?
- Unemployment in September
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the debt ceiling be abolished??
- Kalshi quota No al 98% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the debt ceiling be abolished??
- Will the debt ceiling be abolished? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will the debt ceiling be abolished??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If a bill becomes law that abolishes the debt ceiling (rather than just temporarily suspending or increasing it) before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.