KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiestoDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPunto medio del book selezionato
Before Jan 1, 2029 · —
Caricamento del book selezionato…
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Prezzo registrato
Before Jan 1, 2029 31%In testa tra 3 esiti
Before Jan 1, 2029 31%Qualità del mercato
40 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
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Open interest
1,4K USD
Open interest bassoBid / Ask
— / —
Before Jan 1, 2029Spread
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 23 minuti fa
23 set 26, 23:30 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Il grafico e le variazioni mostrano probabilità storiche salvate, non il book selezionato in tempo reale.
Trend
Riga selezionata: punto medio del book. Altre righe: riferimenti salvati, eventualmente normalizzati; le variazioni a 24h usano lo storico salvato.
Condizioni della piattaforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Queste condizioni sono informative; il trading simulato di CoinRithm segue regole proprie.
- Chiusura anticipata:
- Sì
- Tempo di liquidazione:
- 30m (indicativo)
Profondità di mercato · Before Jan 1, 2029
Caricamento del book selezionato…
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a major 2028 Democratic presidential candidate propose creating a Cabinet-level department to deal with AI risk?
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a High risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWhat will happen during Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsRegole
If a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Only reporting from President Donald J. Trump or the White House qualifies for this market, including Trump’s official Truth Social account and the White House Cabinet page. Reports that merely reference publications from before Issuance do not qualify unless the new publication explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of its publication date. Republishing another source’s content qualifies only if hosted on the outlet’s official platform with that outlet identified as publisher. A position is considered Cabinet-level if the President or White House formally designates its holder as a member of the Cabinet or as holding Cabinet rank. Merely attending Cabinet meetings, advising the President, holding the title “Assistant to the President,” or leading an office within the Executive Office of the President does not by itself qualify. The person must have assumed the position; an announced intention to appoint someone does not qualify. Artificial intelligence must be a primary and distinct responsibility of the position. Officials whose responsibilities include AI only as part of a broader portfolio covering science, technology, economic policy, national security, or another policy area do not qualify. The Cabinet-level designation must belong to the AI position itself: an official who holds Cabinet rank through another office and is additionally assigned AI responsibilities qualifies only if the White House formally designates that AI role as Cabinet-level. A Secretary of Artificial Intelligence, a Cabinet-rank AI czar, or the head of a newly created Cabinet-level department or agency primarily responsible for artificial intelligence would qualify.
Regole per ogni esito
- Before Jan 1, 2029
- If a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If a person formally serves in a Cabinet-level position within the U.S. federal government whose primary and distinct policy portfolio is artificial intelligence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.