Will a major 2028 Democratic presidential candidate propose creating a Cabinet-level department to deal with AI risk?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAElezione2a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 19:26 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeSì 75.7%
Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto17 lug 26, 20:58 UTC7 nov 28, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the 2028 Democratic presidential candidate win any state trump won by 10% or more in 2024?
Manifold MarketsWill any former Democratic presidential candidate be charged with a federal crime during Trump's presidency?
Manifold MarketsHow many electoral votes will the Democratic presidential candidate win in 2028? [overlapping ranges]
Manifold MarketsWhen will the U.S. have a Cabinet-level AI official?
Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee
KalshiRegole
A "major" candidate is defined as being invited to participate in the televised debates, and/or receiving over 10% in at least 5 consecutive polls from different pollsters, anytime between now and the end of the 2028 Democratic primaries.
- If a major candidate proposes an existing federal agency should be tasked with developing an AI x-risk framework, that doesn't count.
- If a major candidate proposes the creation of an entire new Cabinet-level department to deal with the impact of AI on the economy or environment, but doesn't specifically mention x-risk, that doesn't count either.
- What counts is if a Democratic presidential candidate, treated by the media & public as having a serious chance of winning the nomination, says something along the lines of "AI might kill us all, and we should create a new Cabinet-level department tasked with figuring out a response", even if it's an off-the-cuff statement at a debate or town hall that they don't ever follow up on.
