Will Jair Bolsonaro leave prison by the end of January 2027?
PoliticaOne-OffElezioneAmerica LatinaCriminalità e giustizia3mFutuurVerifica disponibilitàDati di risoluzione verificatiProbabilità implicita attualeNo 65%
Qualità del mercato
34 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
1,6K €
Bassa liquiditàTrader
0
Commenti
0
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 minuto fa
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Jair Bolsonaro be pardoned?
KalshiJair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?
PolymarketJair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027?
PolymarketArrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026?
FutuurHow much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Jair Bolsonaro ever be a candidate again for any Brazilian presidential election?
Manifold MarketsRegole
This market counts only releases between October 9, 2026, 12:03 UTC and January 31, 2027, 23:59 Brasília time.
- It resolves "Yes" if Jair Bolsonaro is released from every form of imprisonment, including his current house arrest, per the STF's official decisions — even if he is later returned to custody.
- FULL DETAILS
- If, at any time between October 9, 2026, 12:03 UTC and January 31, 2027, 23:59 Brasília time (February 1, 2027, 02:59 UTC), Jair Messias Bolsonaro ceases to be subject to any form of imprisonment (prisão) — including serving his sentence in a closed, semi-open or open regime, house arrest (prisão domiciliar, such as the humanitarian house arrest in force when this market was drafted) or pretrial detention — this market will immediately resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Releases or changes in custody recorded before October 9, 2026, 12:03 UTC are not taken into account, even if the condition was met at an earlier date.
- The Primary Designated Source is the official decisions of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) in the execution of his sentence, published on portal.stf.jus.br.