How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?
PoliticaGeopolitica5aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale1+ days 100%In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori
13
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+3.1 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto12 set 25, 13:24 UTC31 dic 31, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Arrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026?
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PolymarketWill Jair Bolsonaro be pardoned?
KalshiWill Jair Bolsonaro ever be a candidate again for any Brazilian presidential election?
Manifold MarketsJair Bolsonaro dies before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegole
On 2025-09-11, Brazil’s Supreme Court (First Panel) convicted Jair Bolsonaro in a landmark coup-plot case and set a sentence of 27 years and 3 months.
- The reported vote was 4–1, with lengthy opinions connecting the conviction to efforts to overturn the 2022 election. 🏛️
- Even with a headline sentence, custody status can shift during appeals and sentence execution in Brazil.
- Early phases may involve special accommodations, transfers, and moves among closed, semi-open, and open regimes.
- This market doesn’t adjudicate politics; it measures a single empirical variable: days spent sleeping under custodial control in a penal facility.
- Brazilian law may grant special cells or a State-Major room (“cela especial” / “sala de Estado-Maior”) to certain defendants.