PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 85%+1.6pt
Qualité du marché
72 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
857,5 €
Liquidité
6,1 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
15.0% / 15.2%
Écart
0.2 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
-8.9 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
1 sept. 26, 15:28 UTC30 juin 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Next Grok Model (4.7+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketOpenAI’s Astra Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketWhich AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
KalshiWill OpenAI release its Astra model to the US general public before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?
Manifold MarketsRègles
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI "Astra" model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has the highest arena rank when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions), or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
- This market will resolve solely based on the specified rank in the Rank column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.