PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisProbabilité implicite actuelleOui 25%-0.0%
Qualite du marche
89 / 100
Haute qualitéVolume 24h
203,3 k €
Liquidité
122,4 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
24.0% / 25.0%
Spread
4.2%
Spread modéréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
13 juin 26, 21:4915 juil. 26, 0:00
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Yes25%
Également disponible sur Manifold Markets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? [Polymarket]
23j
24%
76%
Prévision communautaire45 prévisionnistesType: binary
Volume total6,1 k €
Volume 24h1,4 k €
MANIFOLD MARKETSRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Marchés Associés
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
1,7 M €Oui: 5%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
1,4 M €Oui: 7%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
1 M €Switzerland: 91%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? [Polymarket]
16,9 k €Oui: 5.7%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Spain vs Saudi Arabia
10,6 k €Saudi Arabia: 4%
KALSHI
KALSHI2026 FIFA World Cup ⚽ | 🏆 Winner
8 k €Brazil: 7.5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActifs dans ces sujets
Actualités Associées
US ends Iran blockade; Polymarket sees Hormuz normal by July at 46%Blockchain.News
Trump Iran MOU keeps enrichment status quo as Polymarket Yes slips to 19.5%Blockchain.News
Trump–Pezeshkian MOU signed, Polymarket cuts Iran enrichment-end odds to 61.5%Blockchain.News
Trump–Iran deal targets Hormuz reopening as Polymarket normal-traffic odds slipBlockchain.NewsTrump–Pezeshkian peace memo puts Iran enrichment end at 74.5% on PolymarketBlockchain.News
Iran threatens Hormuz shutdown as Israel strikes put U.S. deal at riskCrypto NewsRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.