PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
4 29.5%+1.5ptEn tête parmi 6 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
55 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
1,7 €
Liquidité
5,1 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
3.0 pt
Spread modéréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
+12.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
26 août 26, 22:12 UTC30 sept. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
ChatGPT Outage by which date?
PolymarketWill this question get 100 traders in 515 days? (September 12, 2026) UTC
Manifold MarketsWill Claude go down on __ days in September?
PolymarketWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'.
- ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized.
- (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
- Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered.
- Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
- A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour # of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026? ?
- Polymarket cote 4 à 29% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand # of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- # of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026? doit être résolu le 30 septembre 2026.
- Comment # of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'.