PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
1505+ 67%+17.0ptEn tête parmi 5 options
Qualité du marché
66 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
6,6 k €
Liquidité
5,8 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
1.0 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
+18.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
17 août 26, 23:28 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketNext Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketWhich AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
KalshiWill OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Any Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-5.1, claude-opus-5.5-thinking, claude-opus-6-preview, or similar).
- Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, Mythos, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
- Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut? ?
- Polymarket cote 1505+ à 67% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.