PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
September 30 13%+0.5pt
Qualité du marché
70 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
10,5 k €
Liquidité
40 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
12.0% / 14.0%
Écart
2.0 pt
Spread modéréCommentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
10 sept. 26, 20:07 UTC1 oct. 26, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by which date?
PolymarketHouthis successfully target shipping by which date?
PolymarketHouthis target Saudi Arabia by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces seize control of an oil tanker or a commercial vessel transporting oil as cargo between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- "Houthi forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf.
- Seize control refers to Houthi forces taking custody of or asserting operational control over a commercial ship, including boarding and taking control of the ship, holding or detaining it for an indefinite period, or forcefully rerouting it to a location selected or controlled by the perpetrators.
- Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
- Once a qualifying seizure has occured, any subsequent abandonment, release, rescue, recapture, or other loss of control will not affect the resolution of this market.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31-8.0pt24%
- October 31-5.5pt17%
- September 30-4.5pt8%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 11,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 355,4 k €
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No84.2%
- Yes15.8%
- Volume total
- 56,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 292,3 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+2.6pt66%
- October 31+4.5pt41%
- September 30+5.0pt24%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)79%
- New People (NL)-0.1pt17%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)3%
+5 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- October 31+15.0pt63%
- September 30+19.0pt49%
- September 21+21.5pt42%
+6 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+7.0pt92%
- September 18+10.5pt91%
- September 4+11.0pt87%
+2 résultats de plus
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Houthis seize an oil tanker by which date? ?
- Polymarket cote September 30 à 13% au 12 septembre 2026.
- Quand Houthis seize an oil tanker by which date? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Houthis seize an oil tanker by which date? doit être résolu le 1 octobre 2026.
- Comment Houthis seize an oil tanker by which date? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces seize control of an oil tanker or a commercial vessel transporting oil as cargo between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.