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  • Accueil
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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. Politique
  3. Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?

2.4% (24h)One-OffPolitiqueLatin America18j
PolymarketPolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de frais
Probabilité implicite actuelle
December 31
December 31 20%
En tête parmi 3 options
Qualite du marche

89 / 100

Haute qualité
Volume 24h

4,5 k €

Liquidité

39,1 k €

Liquidité élevée
Achat / Vente

5.8% / 6.0%

Spread

3.5%

Spread modéré
Variation 7j

+1.9%

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes

18 mai 26, 14:1630 juin 26, 0:00

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité
May 31
May 31
0%

Résultat choisi

December 3120%

Règles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
  • Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify.
  • A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
  • Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.

Marchés Associés

Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)

Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)

661,9 k €
Fujimori 0.2–0.3%: 81%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

66,4 k €
Nicolás Maduro: 70%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by...?

Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by...?

20 k €
December 31: 97%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Peru Presidential election winner?

Peru Presidential election winner?

8,3 k €
Roberto Sánchez: 2%KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

Will the US attack Cuba in the next 30 days?

4,9 k €
Oui: 1%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Brazil Presidential election winner?

Brazil Presidential election winner?

163 €
Renan Santos: 15%KalshiKALSHI

Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$62,607.97+1.74%EthereumETH$1,652.06+1.37%SolanaSOL$65.07+0.84%DogecoinDOGE$0.0849+1.02%XRPXRP$1.12-0.29%BNBBNB$595.28+1.26%

Actualités Associées

Former Epstein assistant Lesley Groff appears before House panel Crypto NewsRussia election odds hold with United Russia leading at ~54.5%Blockchain.NewsCongress nears final vote on $70 billion immigration funding packageCrypto NewsTrump unlikely to exit by June 30, Polymarket odds swing sideBlockchain.NewsPeru 2nd Round Bet Focus Narrows to Fujimori Narrow VictoryBlockchain.NewsHouse GOP eyes summer vote on prediction market restrictions for lawmakersCointelegraph

Règles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
  • Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify.
  • A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
  • Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.