Will Raúl Castro be taken into US custody by the end of 2026?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineGéopolitiqueAmérique latine2mois
FutuurVérifier la disponibilitéDonnées de résolution vérifiéesProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 90%
Non 90%Qualité du marché
33 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
1,1 k €
Faible liquiditéTraders
5
Commentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by which date?
PolymarketCuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by which date?
PolymarketRaul Castro dies before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRaul Castro in USA before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsChina returns at least 100 American citizens to US custody seized from Taiwan through 2027
Manifold MarketsMaduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This market predicts whether former Cuban president Raúl Castro will be taken into U.S. government custody before January 1º, 2027, 03:59:00 UTC.
- If, at any point before that deadline, U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raúl Castro, regardless of location or duration, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- The Primary Designated Source is official information from the U.S. government (U.S. Department of Justice press releases, the FBI, the State Department, the White House) and a consensus of credible reporting by reliable news outlets chosen at Futuur’s discretion.
- Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Castro's presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity do not qualify.
- A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Castro submits to U.S. custody does qualify.
