PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 98%+0.4pt
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
7,2 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
1.3% / 2.9%
Écart
1.6 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
+0.3 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
8 avr. 26, 22:16 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Kurt Cobain's death case be reopened?
Manifold MarketsAlcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf there are 100+ inmates at alligator alcatraz will there be a prison break of 1 or more inmates by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketMaduro Prison Time?
PolymarketSBF released from custody in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program.
- Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
- The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marchés ouverts
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- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.5pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 Md €
- Volume 24h
- 1,8 M €
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+44.0pt57.4%
- Nicolás Maduro-40.9pt41.6%
- No Head of State-0.1pt1%
+13 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.1pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff+1.0pt17.9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.0pt16.8%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.7%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep-1.0pt58.6%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30.3%
- Republicans sweep-0.2pt10.1%
+1 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 résultats de plus
- What will Trump say this week?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Alcatraz reopened in 2026? ?
- Polymarket cote No à 98% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand Alcatraz reopened in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Alcatraz reopened in 2026? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Alcatraz reopened in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.