Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 89.9%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète15 avr. 26, 07:06 UTC1 janv. 27, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement?
KalshiWill Samuel Alito leave Supreme Court in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative?
Manifold MarketsWill Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice?
Manifold MarketsWill Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by which date?
PolymarketWhat cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?
KalshiRègles
Leaving for any reason counts as YES - resignation (effective in 2026), death, impeachment, etc.
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 695,7 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volume total
- 24,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 294,7 k €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 291,3 k €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Clarence Thomas leave Supreme Court in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 90% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Clarence Thomas leave Supreme Court in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Clarence Thomas leave Supreme Court in 2026? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will Clarence Thomas leave Supreme Court in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Leaving for any reason counts as YES - resignation (effective in 2026), death, impeachment, etc.