PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
December 31 21%-1.0pt
Qualité du marché
56 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
152,2 €
Liquidité
31,1 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
2.3% / 5.9%
Écart
3.6 pt
Spread modéréCommentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 minutes
11 sept. 26, 20:17 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
PolymarketWill the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
PolymarketBab el-Mandeb Strait closed by which date?
FutuurBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
LimitlessHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 14?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication.
- If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Marchés ouverts
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 18+2.4pt97%
- September 30+1.7pt97%
- September 11+3.7pt96%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 596,9 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.4pt53.5%
- October 31+2.5pt28.9%
- September 30+1.0pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- September 25+2.0pt84%
- September 30-1.5pt83%
- September 18+8.0pt83%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No83.2%
- Yes16.8%
- Volume total
- 57,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 110,7 k €
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+0.6pt53.5%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-0.5pt28.7%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt8.9%
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt22%
- October 31-1.0pt14%
- September 30+0.1pt6%
+9 résultats de plus
- Israel closes its airspace by which date?
- Houthis enter Aden by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour 0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by which date? ?
- Polymarket cote December 31 à 21% au 15 septembre 2026.
- Quand 0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by which date? sera-t-il résolu ?
- 0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by which date? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment 0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by which date? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026.