Will Yuri Oganessian live to see the announcement of a new chemical element discovery?
Russia / UkraineOne-OffScience4aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 71%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète27 août 26, 05:31 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
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KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves to YES if, while Yuri Oganessian is alive, the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) or the IUPAC/IUPAP Joint Working Party (JWP) officially announces the validation and recognition of the discovery of any new chemical element with an atomic number of 119 or greater.
- The official IUPAC announcement of discovery validation (similar to the historical verifications for elements 113, 115, 117, and 118) will serve as the primary source of truth.
- The market resolves to NO if Yuri Oganessian passes away before such an official announcement of validation is publicly released by IUPAC.
- Informal or unverified claims of synthesis, papers published in peer-reviewed journals without joint IUPAC/IUPAP validation, or temporary placeholder systematic names do not suffice to trigger a "YES" resolution.
- Formal validation from IUPAC/IUPAP is required.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Yuri Oganessian live to see the announcement of a new chemical element discovery? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 71% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Yuri Oganessian live to see the announcement of a new chemical element discovery? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Yuri Oganessian live to see the announcement of a new chemical element discovery? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2030.
- Comment Will Yuri Oganessian live to see the announcement of a new chemical element discovery? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria