Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 72.3%
Prévisionnistes
46
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 56 minutes
En retard3 juin 24, 14:10 UTC1 janv. 36, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?
Manifold MarketsAI will kill everyone by mandating toxic vaccines
Manifold MarketsWhat’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]
Manifold MarketsAI will run a $1bn+ outperforming market hedge fund by 2030 where I am 80% sure that AI is doing ~all functions
Manifold MarketsWill the House pass the AI Kill Switch bill in 2026?
PredictItWhen will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
KalshiRègles
Criteria for Resolution:
- Claim of Probability: Eliezer Yudkowsky must make a public claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim is made.
- The claim must be made in all seriousness, not as a joke or sarcasm.
- Types of Qualifying Statements: Statements such as "certain”, "almost sure”, "pretty certain”, "almost inevitable", or any similar expressions that indicate a probability of higher than 90% will qualify, beyond explicit quantitative claims.
- If resolution criteria are not met, the market will resolve NO on January 1, 2036.
- Verification of Ambiguity:
