Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 68.1%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète4 sept. 25, 22:10 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD be approved by the FDA before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsBefore January 1st, 2030, will any treatment for celiac disease be approved by the FDA?
Manifold MarketsEbola pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- Resolve YES if, by 11:59:59 pm Eastern Time on December 31, 2029, the U.S. FDA grants any marketing authorization for human use (approval, licensure, De Novo grant, or 510(k) clearance) to a product that fits this definition: a living, multicellular construct assembled ex vivo from animal or human cells, engineered to perform autonomous tasks in vivo (e.g., locomotion/drug delivery)—i.e., a “xenobot/biobot/anthrobot”-type product.
- Verification must appear in one of the FDA’s public databases: Drugs@FDA (NDAs/BLAs), Purple Book (licensed biologics), PMA, De Novo, or 510(k).
- Links: Drugs@FDA, Purple Book, PMA, De Novo, 510(k).
- (fda.gov, accessdata.fda.gov)
- EUAs, INDs/IDEs, in vitro–only/research-use-only authorizations, animal-use approvals, or products consisting solely of dissociated cells or live microbes (e.g., standard cellular therapies or live biotherapeutics) do NOT count.
