Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 90.6%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète25 juin 26, 23:08 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA and be available for public use by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
PolymarketWhich companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
KalshiWill a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?
KalshiRègles
alt title: "Musk and Trump no longer bffs?"
- Resolves YES on:
- any temporary, "you must delay release to allow US gov to use first" situations, or
- any model being pulled from public availability, for any amount of time
- any model being restricted to US only or similar
- Not enough to count:
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change-10.0pt52.9%
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt45.1%
- 25 bps decrease-1.9pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 4,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,7 M €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-2.2pt93%
- Yes+2.2pt7%
- Volume total
- 18,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 551,6 k €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+3.0pt88.1%
- Republican Party-2.0pt11.9%
- Volume total
- 27,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 549,5 k €
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.1pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.2pt16%
+48 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?
- Before Jan 1, 2027-5.0pt39%
- Before Dec 1, 202631.7%
- Before Nov 1, 202617.9%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 462,4 k €
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+3.0pt56%
- D-House, R-Senate32%
- Republicans sweep-3.0pt11%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 12,9 M €
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Nebraska Senate winner?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Will the SAVE Act become law?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Texas Senate winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Maine Senate winner?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 91% au 16 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : alt title: "Musk and Trump no longer bffs?"