Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 96.2%
Prévisionnistes
36
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète26 nov. 23, 00:22 UTC1 janv. 27, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Manifold MarketsWill a major video game released in 2026 have NPC dialogue generated on-the-fly by a Large Language Model?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
KalshiHow many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?
KalshiRègles
One of the most ambitious goals of mechanistic interpretability would be achieved if we could train a neural network and then distill it into an interpretable algorithm that closely resembles the intermediate computations done by the model.
- Some argue this is unlikely to happen (e.g. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d52aS7jNcmi6miGbw/take-1-we-re-not-going-to-reverse-engineer-the-ai) , while others are trying to make this happen.
- In order for the market to resolve to YES, a model as least as capable as llama2-7B needs to be distilled into python code that can be understood and edited by humans, and this distilled version of the model must perform at least 95% as good as the original model on every benchmark except adversarially constructed ones that specifically highlight the differences between the distilled and the original model.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
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KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
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POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
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POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.2pt99%
- OpenAI+0.6pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
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- 85 k €
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- Best AI this week
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will we reverse-engineer a language model into an interpretable (python) program by 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 96.2% au 22 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will we reverse-engineer a language model into an interpretable (python) program by 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will we reverse-engineer a language model into an interpretable (python) program by 2027? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will we reverse-engineer a language model into an interpretable (python) program by 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : One of the most ambitious goals of mechanistic interpretability would be achieved if we could train a neural network and then distill it into an interpretable algorithm that closely resembles the intermediate computations done by the model.