Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 67.4%
Prévisionnistes
87
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète26 janv. 24, 11:48 UTC1 mars 00, 22:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will we get fusion reactors before a human walks on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill we get fusion reactors before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill we get fusion reactors before 2041?
Manifold MarketsWill we get fusion reactors before 2031?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiOpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.
- Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
- It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
- Resolves as YES if such a system is created before we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).
- Numeric markets:
- @/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors