Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 83%
Prévisionnistes
43
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 minutes
8 juil. 25, 03:54 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the AI bubble pop before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the AI bubble pop by X date?
Manifold MarketsIs Sora's shutdown the start of an AI bubble pop by 2028?
Manifold MarketsAI bubble burst by which date?
PolymarketWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This market closes 31 Dec 2027 and I’ll settle it during 2028 by giving my honest take.
- If, by then, I feel that 2023-2026 looked like a dot-com-style frenzy i.e., tech and especially AI stocks were clearly overvalued around their 2025 highs it resolves YES; otherwise NO.
- I’ll base my judgment on my own reading of market charts, news, and general vibes rather than any formal threshold.
- Think of it as “does 2025 now look bubbly to me?” that’s the whole criteria.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volume total
- 241,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 128 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 349,4 k €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will we be called the AI bubble ? 2028 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 83% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will we be called the AI bubble ? 2028 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will we be called the AI bubble ? 2028 doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment Will we be called the AI bubble ? 2028 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market closes 31 Dec 2027 and I’ll settle it during 2028 by giving my honest take.