Prévision communautaire actuelle
By 12-31-2025 0%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
72
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 21 heures
Obsolète26 oct. 25, 11:3831 déc. 27, 10:29
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
By 9-30-20265%
Comparer les plateformes· By 3-31-2028
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketMeilleur global72% de correspondance · vérifié | Moyenne | 16% | — | 6,2 € | 14,8 k € | il y a 14 minutes | Ouvrir → |
| Manifold MarketsCette page | — | 47% | — | — | — | il y a 21 heures |
Également disponible sur Polymarket
AI bubble burst by which date?
5mo
16%
-0.1%0%
+0.1%0%
60 • Qualité moyenneSpread modéréLiquidité moyenne
Volume total2,6 M €
Volume 24h6,2 €
POLYMARKETRègles
Will the AI bubble pop by X date?
- For the purpose of resolving this market, I will define the AI bubble popping as a reduction in the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) closing price of 35% or more within a period of 10 consecutive trading days.
- More formally, let pₜ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t, and let pₜ₊ₛ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t + s, such that 0 < s ≤ 10.
- A market will resolve to Yes if
- (pₜ - pₜ₊ₛ) / pₜ ≥ .35
- is satisfied by the stated date.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Tendance du volume
$709 juil.4j de données25 juil.
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Top AI model this week
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KALSHI
KALSHIActifs dans ces sujets
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Will the AI bubble pop by X date?
- For the purpose of resolving this market, I will define the AI bubble popping as a reduction in the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) closing price of 35% or more within a period of 10 consecutive trading days.
- More formally, let pₜ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t, and let pₜ₊ₛ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t + s, such that 0 < s ≤ 10.
- A market will resolve to Yes if
- (pₜ - pₜ₊ₛ) / pₜ ≥ .35
- is satisfied by the stated date.