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Will the AI bubble pop by X date?

Manifold MarketsSans KYC

Prévision communautaire actuelle

By 12-31-2025 0%

En tête parmi 10 options

Prévisionnistes

72

Type de question

multiple choice

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 5 jours

Obsolète

26 oct. 25, 11:3831 déc. 27, 10:29

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Résultat choisi

By 6-30-20263%

Mise (USDT)

Règles

Will the AI bubble pop by X date?

For the purpose of resolving this market, I will define the AI bubble popping as a reduction in the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) closing price of 35% or more within a period of 10 consecutive trading days.
More formally, let pₜ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t, and let pₜ₊ₛ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t + s, such that 0 < s ≤ 10.
A market will resolve to Yes if
(pₜ - pₜ₊ₛ) / pₜ ≥ .35
is satisfied by the stated date.

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Règles

Will the AI bubble pop by X date?

For the purpose of resolving this market, I will define the AI bubble popping as a reduction in the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) closing price of 35% or more within a period of 10 consecutive trading days.
More formally, let pₜ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t, and let pₜ₊ₛ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t + s, such that 0 < s ≤ 10.
A market will resolve to Yes if
(pₜ - pₜ₊ₛ) / pₜ ≥ .35
is satisfied by the stated date.