Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 93.6%
Prévisionnistes
404
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète28 déc. 25, 05:18 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
This market will resolve YES if it is widely reported that the "AI Bubble" has "bursted" or "popped" by 11:59 PM UTC Dec. 31 2026.
- This could manifest in many different ways: - a sudden drop of the NQINTEL or S&P500 indexes - a halt of capital expenditure and/or VC investment in AI - private AI companies (such as OAI, xAI, Anthropic, etc.) raising at substantially lower valuations than previous rounds, defaulting or shutting down. - governments / big enterprises moving down AI in their priority lists.
- These events need to be widely reported and referred to as an AI crash or similar by trusted news sources such as Bloomberg, NY Times, FT, Reuters, AP, etc. Other reasons for a stock market crash or economic slowdown (tariffs, wars, etc.) will not count.
- Feel free to ask more questions about the criteria.
- I will not trade on this market.
- Update 2026-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Media consensus is the primary resolution criterion.
Marchés ouverts
Trade Policy
KALSHISouth Carolina ports total container volume in 2026
- Above 2.2 million TEUs94%
- Above 2.3 million TEUs84%
- Above 2.4 million TEUs56%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 13,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 4,7 k €
POLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
- December 3156.5%
- October 3130.6%
- September 30+3.0pt13%
+1 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 307%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
- Canadian aircraft+11.0pt35%
- Wind turbines23%
- Critical minerals-29.0pt11%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 25,3 k €
POLYMARKETWill Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
- No+4.0pt77%
- Yes-4.0pt23%
- Volume total
- 17,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 556,6 €
KALSHIWill Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
- Yes-5.0pt72%
- No28%
- Volume total
- 1,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 543,1 €
- Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by which date?
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
- Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?
- Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026?
- How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
- Will Trump formalize a 100% tariff on generic drugs before the midterms?
- Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13)
- Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by which date?
- US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
- US charges Hormuz fees by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the AI bubble pop in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 94% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the AI bubble pop in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the AI bubble pop in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will the AI bubble pop in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve YES if it is widely reported that the "AI Bubble" has "bursted" or "popped" by 11:59 PM UTC Dec. 31 2026.