Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleMajor AI lab (OpenAI/Anthropic/xAI) announces 20%+ layoffs by end 2026 31%-3.1ptEn tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-3.1 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète8 mars 26, 08:00 UTC8 mars 27, 08:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
AI bubble burst by which date?
PolymarketWill the AI bubble pop in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAI BUBBLE? Which AI companies will drop >60% from their peak in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAI bubble pops in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Tracks signals of AI hype sustainability or burst amid $2.5T global spending forecast for 2026.
- Recent Citrini report and earnings worries trigger AI stock selloff in early March.
- AI-managed market.
- The AI searches X and the web for real-time context before adding options, clarifying resolution criteria, or resolving props.
- /add-option — suggest a new prop.
- AI researches it, then adds if unique and interesting.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volume total
- 241,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 128 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 349,4 k €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour AI Bubble (props) ?
- Manifold Markets cote Major AI lab (OpenAI/Anthropic/xAI) announces 20%+ layoffs by end 2026 à 31% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand AI Bubble (props) sera-t-il résolu ?
- AI Bubble (props) doit être résolu le 8 mars 2027.
- Comment AI Bubble (props) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Tracks signals of AI hype sustainability or burst amid $2.5T global spending forecast for 2026.