Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 79.4%
Prévisionnistes
42
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète12 févr. 26, 20:12 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the AI bubble pop by X date?
Manifold MarketsIs Sora's shutdown the start of an AI bubble pop by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill we be called the AI bubble ? 2028
Manifold MarketsWhen will the AI bubble pop?
Manifold MarketsAI bubble burst by which date?
PolymarketWill the AI bubble burst by which date?
FutuurRègles
Resolves YES if, before December 31, 2027, at least three major financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, New York Times) explicitly describe a sustained downturn in AI investment, valuations, or AI-related public stocks as an “AI bubble burst,” “AI crash,” or equivalent term primarily attributed to AI sector dynamics.
- General economic downturns not primarily attributed to AI do not count.
- Sustained downturn = A decline of at least 30% from a prior peak sustained for at least 3 consecutive months, in at least three major publicly traded companies widely recognized as primary beneficiaries of the AI boom OR a documented reduction in AI venture funding and valuations covering at least two consecutive quarters.
- Examples of public AI companies include, but are not limited to: NVDA, AMD, TSMC
- Update 2026-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the "sustained downturn" requirement:
- 3 AI stocks must decline at least 30% from prior peak for 3 consecutive months, OR
