Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 80.3%
Prévisionnistes
144
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète13 déc. 25, 15:14 UTC12 janv. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Double digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?
Manifold MarketsWill the average US inflation between 2024–2034 be more than 2.21%?
Manifold MarketsWill AI technology lead to higher or lower US inflation rates by end of June 2027
Manifold MarketsAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?
PolymarketHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
PolymarketSeptember Inflation US - Annual
PolymarketRègles
This market resolves YES if the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for the United States is 3% or higher for the calendar year 2026 (Dec 2026 price level compared to Dec 2025).
- The resolution will be based on the 12-month headline CPI inflation rate published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm.
- Goes by the headline figure, typically rounded to 1 decimal.
- I will use most suitable replacement if BLS stops publishing this statistic or if it is widely treated as unreliable measure of inflation.
- I will bet in this market.
- If we hit ambiguity around reliability will agree with a group of representative YES and NO holders.
Marchés ouverts
InflationPOLYMARKETAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+3.0pt86.1%
- No-3.0pt13.9%
- Volume total
- 61,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 21,8 k €
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.4%99%
- Above 0.2%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+11 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 187,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,1 k €
POLYMARKETSeptember Inflation US - Annual
- 3.6%-1.0pt39.6%
- 3.7%+0.5pt25.2%
- 3.5%+2.5pt19.8%
+9 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.8%+7.9pt100%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHICore inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Above 2.1%99%
- Above 2.2%98%
- Above 2.3%+2.0pt86%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 40,2 k €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- 2 (50 bps)+3.0pt60.2%
- 3 (75 bps)-1.4pt23.3%
- 1 (25 bps)-1.0pt15.5%
+3 résultats de plus
- September Inflation China - Annual
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
- CPI year-over-year in Dec 2026
- CPI core in September
- September 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core
- NYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Argentina Monthly Inflation - September
- CPI core in November 2026
- Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- CPI in October
- September Inflation US - Monthly
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 80% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026? doit être résolu le 12 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES if the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for the United States is 3% or higher for the calendar year 2026 (Dec 2026 price level compared to Dec 2025).