Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 82.5%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 36 minutes
7 mars 26, 17:21 UTC31 déc. 49, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the UK’s GDP per capita exceed the US’ at any time before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Manifold MarketsIf Labour wins the 2024 UK general election, what will average GDP/capita (PPP) growth over the next four years be?
Manifold MarketsUS GDP growth in Q3 2026?
PolymarketCore CPI in October
KalshiRègles
As of 2025, US nominal GDP per capita is ~$89,600 vs. ~$58,000 for Western Europe, a ratio of roughly 1.55x.
- This question resolves YES if that ratio exceeds 10.0 at anytime before 2050.
- Western Europe defined as: Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, Luxembourg (UN Geoscheme) GDP per capita in nominal USD
