Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 89.7%
Prévisionnistes
35
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard4 juil. 25, 17:26 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Did the 2026 LA mayoral primary have election fraud?
Manifold MarketsHow many states will Trump claim the midterms were rigged in?
Manifold MarketsDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiTrump out as President by September 30?
PolymarketPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
PolymarketRègles
Any Trump statement/tweet/truth/etc claiming election fraud/theft/rigging as the results of the midterms come out.
- Only statements by Trump himself will be considered, not members of his admin.
- I will bet on this market.
- Update 2025-07-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A statement that only expresses suspicion, such as "very suspicious", without explicitly claiming fraud, theft, or rigging, will not be sufficient for a YES resolution.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsKALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.7%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.7%
- Gavin Newsom13.5%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 193,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 710,8 k €
KALSHIWhat will Trump say this week?
- TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome99%
- Barack Hussein Obama99%
- Cuba / Cuban99%
+34 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 584,6 k €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.3pt91.1%
- Republican Party-0.7pt8.9%
- Volume total
- 29,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 407,5 k €
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+1.0pt60%
- D-House, R-Senate30%
- Republicans sweep-0.6pt9%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 14,9 M €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.8pt3%
- April 300%
- June 300%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- December+0.5pt21%
- October+0.5pt13%
- September 30,-0.3pt4%
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Brazil Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Trump claim election fraud in the 2026 midterms? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 90% au 21 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Trump claim election fraud in the 2026 midterms? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Trump claim election fraud in the 2026 midterms? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Trump claim election fraud in the 2026 midterms? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Any Trump statement/tweet/truth/etc claiming election fraud/theft/rigging as the results of the midterms come out.