2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlectionÉlections de mi-mandat américaines 20263mois
KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 10:06 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Milieu du carnet sélectionné
Democrats, ≥2% · —
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
—
Prix enregistré
Democrats, ≥2% 95.5%En tête parmi 13 options
Democrats, ≥2% 95.5%Qualité du marché
53 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
394,3 €
Intérêt ouvert
28,5 k $US
Intérêt ouvert élevéAchat / Vente
— / —
Democrats, ≥2%Écart
—
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard15 sept. 26, 16:00 UTC3 févr. 27, 15:00 UTC
Le graphique et les variations affichent les probabilités historiques enregistrées, pas le carnet sélectionné en direct.
Tendances
Ligne sélectionnée : milieu du carnet. Autres lignes : références enregistrées, éventuellement normalisées ; les variations sur 24h utilisent l’historique enregistré.
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Profondeur du marché · Democrats, ≥2%
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
—
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?
Kalshi2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Polymarket2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
KalshiNZ Popular Vote Margin of Victory (Polymarket)
Manifold MarketsNZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
PolymarketIf Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win?
Manifold MarketsRègles
If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 10 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives
- The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.
Règles de chaque résultat
- Democrats, ≥2%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 2 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥4%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 4 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥5%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 5 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥6%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 6 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥7%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 7 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥8%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 8 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥9%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 9 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥10%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 10 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥11%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 11 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥12%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥13%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 13 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥16%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 16 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥14%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 14 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.