2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
One-OffPolitiqueÉlectionUS Politics1a
KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesGrossièrement calibréProbabilité implicite actuelleDemocrats, 8 to 10% 21.4%-1.0ptEn tête parmi 10 options
Qualite du marche
78 / 100
Haute qualitéVolume 24h
5,7 k €
Liquidité
430,7 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
21.0% / 22.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Spread serréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 24 minutes
4 févr. 26, 15:003 nov. 27, 13:59
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Democrats, 6 to 8%22%
Comparer les plateformes· Democrats, 8 to 10%
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiCette pageMeilleur global | Élevée | 24% | — | 5,7 k € | 430,7 k € | il y a 24 minutes | |
 PredictIt87% de correspondance · vérifié | — | 25% | — | — | — | il y a 24 minutes | Ouvrir → |
Également disponible sur PredictIt
What will be the national vote margin in the 2026 House midterms?
8mo
25%
25%
0%
+5 résultats de plus
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITRègles
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S.
- House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.
- The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Grosses transactions
$3.4k98.2%KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — No-8 j
KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — No-8 j$2.0k98.5%KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — No-8 j
KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — No-8 j$1.2k98.5%KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — No-8 j
KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — No-8 jTendance du volume
$6.5k2 juil.26j de données27 juil.
Marchés Associés
Florida Republican Governor nominee?
661,9 k €James Fishback: 3%KALSHI
KALSHI
Presidential Election Winner 2028
472 k €JD Vance: 20%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
422,4 k €Gavin Newsom: 19%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Ohio Governor winner?
347,3 k €Vivek Ramaswamy: 51%KALSHI
KALSHI
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
198,3 k €Gadi Eizenkot: 52%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
2028 Republican presidential nominee
192 k €Donald J. Trump: 3%KALSHI
KALSHIActifs dans ces sujets
Actualités Associées
Polymarket odds swing: Eizenkot hits 51% as Israel campaign kicks offBlockchain.News
Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News
White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk
Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News
White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph
Polymarket odds show Vance at 19.85% as Epstein files critique hits tapeBlockchain.NewsRègles
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S.
- House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.
- The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.