2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
1.3 pts (24h)One-OffPolitiqueUS PoliticsÉlection1mois
PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Democrats 8-10% 26.7%En tête parmi 13 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
75 / 100
Haute qualitéVolume 24h
485,5 €
Liquidité
176,5 k €
Liquidité élevéeÉcart
1.1 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
+0.8 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes
19 févr. 26, 00:27 UTC3 nov. 26, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
- For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election.
- The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election.
- Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House.