2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
2.9 pts (24h)PolitiqueOne-OffÉlections de mi-mandat américaines 2026Politique américaineÉlection3mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleDemocrats, ≥5% 90%+2.9ptEn tête parmi 12 options
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+40.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 minutes
25 oct. 26, 20:10 UTC3 févr. 27, 15:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?
Kalshi2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Kalshi2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
PolymarketNZ Popular Vote Margin of Victory (Polymarket)
Manifold MarketsNZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
PolymarketIf Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Mirrors this Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhousepopvotemargind/kxhousepopvotemargind/kxhousepopvotemargind-26nov03/kxhousepopvotemargind-26nov03-al10
- Resolves according to Kalshi's final result, using Kalshi's rules for this market.
- Kalshi's rules: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 10 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.