Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 65.6%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète11 déc. 25, 18:56 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Time's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiTIME Person of the Year 2026
PolymarketWho will be on the 2026 Time Person Of The Year Shortlist?
Manifold MarketsWill AI be Time's person of the year in 2025 OR 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill TIME's 2026 Person of the Year be EXCLUSIVELY one person?
Manifold MarketsTIME Person of the Year 2026
FutuurRègles
This market resolves YES if the winner of Time's Person of the Year in 2026 is given to one human person.
- This market would resolve YES for:
- A single individual person (e.g. "Donald Trump")
- An individual plus a concept or non-human entity (e.g. "Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Spirit of Ukraine")
- It would resolve NO for:
- More than one person, or a nonspecific group (e.g. "Joe Biden and Kamala Harris" or "The Architects of AI")
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 695,7 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volume total
- 24,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 294,7 k €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 291,3 k €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Time's 2026 Person of the Year have one human? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 66% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Time's 2026 Person of the Year have one human? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Time's 2026 Person of the Year have one human? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Time's 2026 Person of the Year have one human? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES if the winner of Time's Person of the Year in 2026 is given to one human person.