Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 68.8%
Prévisionnistes
32
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard2 sept. 22, 19:59 UTC1 janv. 30, 08:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a global depression in the 2020s?
Manifold MarketsWill a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the World Health Organization declare another global pandemic before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?
Manifold MarketsHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
From Wikipedia:
- "A pandemic is an epidemic occurring on a scale that crosses international boundaries, usually affecting people on a worldwide scale."
- "An epidemic is the rapid spread of disease to a large number of patients among a given population within an area in a short period of time."
- Simply existing in many different countries isn't enough; there has to be large-scale spread in those countries.
- In addition, the disease must have a noticeable impact on normal human life.
- It will not count if a new pathogen emerges and spreads virulently across the globe, but is completely harmless and there are no significant efforts to prevent its spread.
