Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 68.8%
Prévisionnistes
32
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 22 minutes
2 sept. 22, 19:59 UTC1 janv. 30, 08:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a global depression in the 2020s?
Manifold MarketsWill a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the World Health Organization declare another global pandemic before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?
Manifold MarketsHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
KalshiRègles
From Wikipedia:
- "A pandemic is an epidemic occurring on a scale that crosses international boundaries, usually affecting people on a worldwide scale."
- "An epidemic is the rapid spread of disease to a large number of patients among a given population within an area in a short period of time."
- Simply existing in many different countries isn't enough; there has to be large-scale spread in those countries.
- In addition, the disease must have a noticeable impact on normal human life.
- It will not count if a new pathogen emerges and spreads virulently across the globe, but is completely harmless and there are no significant efforts to prevent its spread.