Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 85.7%
Prévisionnistes
31
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète3 avr. 25, 03:56 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill the US have an economic depression before January 2030?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiCPI in August
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if global GDP decreases by 10% according to the following page or an equivalent release from the IMF: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
- The decrease does not have to happen over one year.
- Two years of 6% decreases in a row would resolve YES.
- The market resolves NO if there is a brief decrease which does not show up on the yearly data (for example, the 2020 recession would not qualify, even if it briefly caused 10% GDP decline).
- I believe the last historical example of a global depression was 1929-1932.
Marchés ouverts
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 90,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 358,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 35,8 k €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 548,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 29,8 k €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP-23.0pt71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP-2.0pt58%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,7 k €
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 17,7 k €
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-2.0pt22%
- Volume total
- 310,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 6,5 k €
- Recession this year?
- CPI in September
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be a global depression in the 2020s? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 86% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be a global depression in the 2020s? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be a global depression in the 2020s? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Will there be a global depression in the 2020s? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if global GDP decreases by 10% according to the following page or an equivalent release from the IMF: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD