Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 57.5%
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 57 minutes
En retard29 mai 25, 17:12 UTC1 janv. 00, 18:05 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028?
Manifold MarketsChina will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2030
Manifold MarketsChina will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2026
Manifold MarketsConditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
AGI definition: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/ (currently expected 2033)
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), a global pause is implemented that includes the largest AI training runs.
- The pause must be based on factors that correlate with the AI systems being more generally powerful or intelligent (for example by limiting the number of parameters or by significantly restricting the hardware that can be acquired to train these systems).
- A "global pause" is a regulation or agreement that includes at least the two leading countries in AI development capabilities at the time it is implemented (or the top labs from these countries).
- Regulations or agreements that are implemented and announced independently but are in effect at the same time would also be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes."
- Resolves N/A if there is no AGI and no pause before 2200.
