Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 69%
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète29 mai 25, 17:12 UTC1 janv. 00, 18:05 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028?
Manifold MarketsChina will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2030
Manifold MarketsConditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
AGI definition: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/ (currently expected 2033)
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), a global pause is implemented that includes the largest AI training runs.
- The pause must be based on factors that correlate with the AI systems being more generally powerful or intelligent (for example by limiting the number of parameters or by significantly restricting the hardware that can be acquired to train these systems).
- A "global pause" is a regulation or agreement that includes at least the two leading countries in AI development capabilities at the time it is implemented (or the top labs from these countries).
- Regulations or agreements that are implemented and announced independently but are in effect at the same time would also be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes."
- Resolves N/A if there is no AGI and no pause before 2200.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 69% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2200.
- Comment Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : AGI definition: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/ (currently expected 2033)